Bluff-top owners in Solana Beach tend to think about the ocean in storms: a big swell, a high tide, a winter when the beach goes thin. Sea-level rise is slower and quieter. It raises the baseline those storms start from, a little each year, and the state now asks permits and plans to account for it.
This briefing pulls together the measured trend at the nearest long-running tide gauge, the state’s scenario numbers for that gauge, and the ways recent Solana Beach permits already reflect them. It is written for owners and HOA boards planning structural work on homes and buildings near the bluff.
The short version
- The San Diego tide gauge shows sea level rising about 2.22 millimeters a year over its record, roughly three-quarters of a foot per century.
- State scenarios for the same gauge range from about half a foot to just over a foot of rise by 2050, compared with 2000, and spread much wider by 2100.
- The Coastal Commission’s 2024 guidance treats homes as having 75 to 100 year lifetimes and asks projects to look at the higher scenarios.
- Recent Solana Beach seawall permits include assumption-of-risk language that names sea-level rise, five-year monitoring, and mitigation reviewed in 20-year periods.
What the tide gauge has measured
NOAA tide station 9410170 in San Diego has a record that begins in 1906. Its relative sea-level trend for 1906 through 2025 is 2.22 millimeters per year, plus or minus 0.16, which NOAA converts to 0.73 feet per century.
That number is history, not forecast. It blends a century of slow rise and includes local land movement. It is useful because it is measured, and because it shows the baseline has already moved over the lifetime of the oldest buildings along the bluff.
The state’s scenarios for San Diego
The Coastal Commission adopted an updated Sea Level Rise Policy Guidance on November 13, 2024. It uses the State’s 2024 scenarios and provides tables for individual tide gauges. For the San Diego gauge, measured against a 2000 baseline, the median figures are:
| Scenario | 2050 | 2100 |
|---|---|---|
| Low | 0.5 ft | 1.0 ft |
| Intermediate-Low | 0.7 ft | 1.6 ft |
| Intermediate | 0.8 ft | 3.2 ft |
| Intermediate-High | 1.1 ft | 4.9 ft |
| High | 1.3 ft | 6.7 ft |
Two things stand out. First, the scenarios are fairly close together through mid-century and fan out afterward. Second, the guidance describes the Intermediate-Low scenario as a reasonable lower bound for the most likely range by 2100 and the Intermediate scenario as a reasonable upper bound.
Why the planning horizon matters
The guidance asks permits and local plans to analyze the Intermediate, Intermediate-High and High scenarios, as appropriate, to understand a worst case. It also lists typical lifetimes for planning: temporary or ancillary structures around 25 years, residential structures 75 to 100 years, and critical infrastructure 100 years or more.
For a board deciding on a foundation repair or a new upper-bluff support, that means the question is not only how the bluff behaves now. It is how the design holds up across decades in which the higher scenarios diverge.
Solana Beach as the state’s example
The guidance singles out this city. It notes that in 2012 the Commission approved a Land Use Plan for Solana Beach with many policies addressing the existing homes along high, eroding bluffs, and calls it a good example of a pragmatic effort: reducing risk to existing homes, allowing some redevelopment while moving the line of new development inland, minimizing new bluff protection and seawalls, and possibly removing protective devices in the future.
The City’s Land Use Plan chapter on new development covers how bluff-top projects are reviewed, including methods for repair and maintenance of protective devices. Our Coastal Commission permits page explains how those reviews generally run.
How it already appears in permits
The June 2026 Commission staff report on a seawall repair along South Sierra Avenue (CDP 6-24-0307) shows sea-level rise woven into ordinary permit conditions:
- Hazards described. The report describes local bluffs as subject to wave action, reduced beach sand and landslides, as exacerbated by sea-level rise.
- Assumption of risk. The owner acknowledges site hazards, many of which the condition says will worsen with future sea-level rise.
- Monitoring. A licensed geologist or civil or geotechnical engineer inspects the protection and takes measurements every five years, with a report due by May 1 of every fifth year.
- Mitigation periods. Impacts on sand supply and public access are mitigated in 20-year increments, so the question returns to the Commission over time.
- Saltwater effects. The report attributes cracking and exposed rebar on the existing wall to wave action and saltwater intrusion.
None of this predicts what happens to any particular property. It does show that sea-level rise is no longer a background topic in local permits. Our briefing on tiebacks covers the monitoring side in more detail.
What it means for structural planning
A higher baseline tide means waves reach the base of the bluff more often, and protective structures spend more time wet with salt water. For bluff-top buildings, a few planning habits follow.
- Design life. Ask designers which scenario and horizon they used and why.
- Inspection rhythm. Line up building inspections with the five-year seawall monitoring cycle so findings can be read together.
- Corrosion. Expect more attention to concrete cover, coatings and drainage on exposed elements.
- Records. Keep as-built drawings and monitoring reports together; they become the evidence for the next permit.
- Reserves. Build sea-level assumptions into reserve studies rather than treating repairs as one-time events.
Our bluff-top foundation repair page covers how building foundations near the edge are evaluated.
Numbered takeaways
- The measured local trend is about three-quarters of a foot per century; the scenarios ahead are higher.
- Plans and permits are asked to consider the higher scenarios over 75 to 100 year building lifetimes.
- Solana Beach’s own Land Use Plan is the Commission’s model for pragmatic bluff policy.
- Recent permits here already tie monitoring, risk acknowledgment and mitigation to sea-level rise.
- Boards that keep good records and coordinate inspection schedules will be better prepared for each review.
Where we fit
We evaluate and repair the structures that support homes and buildings near the bluff, to engineered plans and approved permits, and we coordinate with licensed engineers as needed for geotechnical and coastal analysis. We do not predict permit outcomes or schedules, and no structure makes a bluff permanent. What we can offer is a clear look at current conditions and the factors that will shape scope, such as access, exposure, monitoring requirements and design horizon.
We serve the whole city of Solana Beach. To talk through your building, request a Free Quote.